October 1, 2004: In a thought-provoking essay titled "Expansion? First Europe needs a core", former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt writes in the prestigious weekly "Die Zeit" that the European Union needs a period of consolidation and reform before attempting to add any more new members. His comments are an assessment of the EU's current situation after admitting 10 new members on May 1, 2004. "If the EU wants to assert itself in tomorrow's world, its leading members must undergo reform and speak to America with one voice," Schmidt urged ("Die Zeit", No. 39, September 16, 2004).

In Schmidt's view, EU institutions were designed to support the original six members who signed the Treaty of Rome in 1957. Although EU systems became increasingly burdensome as the EU grew – the uninamity rule for EU decisions being the primary case in point – things continued to function, even with 15 member states. However, this year's admission of 10 countries in eastern Europe forces the EU to confront its need for reform and consolidation. Those 10 new countries have a per capita production 50% less than that of the 15 older EU member states. EU membership for Turkey in the near future would make Turkey the only EU country with a growing population and threaten Europe's financial viability and cohesiveness.

Schmidt sees several possibilities for the EU. Admitting Turkey and other countries – possibly in northern Africa – would relegate the EU to a free trade zone, a development that England would be likely to support. "England did not join the EU out of conviction or from the realization that membership serves England's strategic interests, but rather to retain influence over Europe's development" (ibid.). If the EU fails to ratify a constitution, another option would be for Europe to reach agreement at least on limited reforms such as allowing majority decisions on some EU policies.

The best option for the EU would be a constitution providing a framework for common foreign policy action in unusual situations. In view of Europe's divided reaction over the Iraq war, Schmidt wonders how realistic a common foreign policy approach is at this time. For example, would London and Paris be willing to give up their seats on the United Nations Security Council in exchange for a single EU seat? Helmut Schmidt concludes his essay with the following prediction: "Regardless of which of [these] developments occurs, presumably in day-to-day operations an inner EU core will develop. It will surely encompass France and Germany and probably also include the original founding member states of Italy, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg." Will the EU become a Democratic Dictatorship?