November 8, 2004: The European Union has agreed on a constitution, but will it be approved by all 25 member states in time to be implemented on schedule on January 1, 2007? The political elite of the EU met in Rome on October 29, 2004 to sign the agreement on the new constitution, which took place in the same room where the original six member states got the ball rolling in the first place by joining together to form the European Economic Community.

Reaching agreement on the wording of the constitution was a remarkable achievement, considering the wrangling over its text in recent months. Those countries desiring a direct reference to God in the preamble did not get their way. Instead, the new EU constitution begins with the words: "Drawing on the cultural, religious and humanistic traditions of Europe..." The constitution also eliminates the unanimity provision for most decisions by providing that resolutions will be binding if made by at least 55 percent of the EU member states representing at least 60 percent of the EU's total population. However, the current single nation veto will still apply for decisions involving taxation, foreign policy and security issues. Since the constitution establishes for the first time an official EU foreign minister, retaining the single nation veto right on foreign policy will mean that the EU foreign minister can speak authoritatively for the EU only when all member states agree on a common policy.

What happens now? All 25 EU members must ratify the constitution by the end of 2006 so it can take effect as planned on January 1, 2007. National referendums are already planned in at least 12 countries and are a possibility in several others. The outcome of those referendums is by no means a clear-cut case, especially in the United Kingdom, where anti-EU sentiments tend to run high at times. The Danes did reject the Maastricht treaty the first time around, as did the Irish with the current treaty of Nice. Since all 25 EU members have to ratify the constitution, what would happen if one or more of them reject it? There are four likely scenarios for that eventuality:

• Those countries that reject the treaty renounce their EU membership or negotiate special membership status with the rest of the EU.

• The currently valid treaty of Nice remains in effect, and some of the changes contained in the constitution's wording would be implemented a step below the level of a formal agreement by treaty.

• Those countries that reject the constitution hold another referendum or resubmit the constitution for ratification to their respective parlaments.

• Those countries that ratify the constitution rescind the current treaty of Nice and proceed among themselves with the constitution as the basis for their relationship. This would cause a schism within the EU.

Is a Democratic Dictatorship on the horizon for Europe?