June 4, 2006: France apparently wants to initiate debate within the European Union on the question of future EU expansion. In a position paper being called the "Non"-paper, the French call for stricter requirements for admitting any additional members to the EU. For example, the French want public opinion in the 25 member countries to be taken into account before a final decision is made on adding new members. In addition, the verification of criteria to be fulfilled as a prerequisite for membership should be handled in several individual stages, rather than in one large "package deal." Both proposals would create major obstacles for EU membership for Turkey and the western Balkan countries seeking admission to the Union.

The French would like to see their position paper discussed at the EU summit meeting later this month as part of an overall discussion on the subject of the EU's "absorption capacity." EU expansion commissioner Olli Rehn is supposed to present a report later this year on this very subject, but the French government apparently does not trust the EU commission when it comes to EU expansion. The French consider the commission to be far too liberal in its approach to admitting new members.

The French initiative comes as no surprise for political observers. In the last two years, public opinion within the EU has grown noticeably more sceptical regarding EU plans for eastward expansion. Recent surveys show that the percentage of EU citizens who view expansion as "something positive" has dropped to 55 percent. However, the citizens of older EU countries in western Europe tend to be more negative than their eastern European counterparts. 48 percent of the Dutch people see the European Union in its current size as being "complete."

The governments of Denmark, France and the Netherlands have already responded to domestic public opinion on EU expansion. EU diplomats report that in closed meetings representatives of these three countries openly question whether the Balkan countries and Turkey should be admitted to the Union, apparently resulting in another of EU commission President Barroso's frequent reminders that "we have to keep our promises". Barroso means the ongoing negotiations with Turkey and the promise made in mid-2003 at an EU summit meeting in Thessalonica that the countries in the western Balkan region would be "part of the EU without any limitations."

The question that keeps coming up is whether the EU can even absorb any more new members. The "absorption capacity" is part of the "Copenhagen criteria" agreed upon in 1993, criteria that must be fulfilled for any new members to be admitted to the EU. Expansion commissioner Olli Rehn recently defined his view of the "absoprtion capacity": "When a new member country is admitted, the Union must be able to continue to function, the admission of a new member must be able to be financed by the existing members and the political goals of the Union may not be jeopardized."

That leaves plenty of room for maneuvering. France, along with Denmark and the Netherlands, will do all it can in the coming months to keep Rehn and even commission President Barroso on a short leash whenever EU expansion is discussed.