November 27, 2006: Will the European Union maintain its principles in its negotiations with Ankara on Turkey's bid to join the EU? Or will the desire to continue EU expansion eastward prevail over principle? When official negotiations were opened one year ago, no one expected them to be easy or completed quickly. Just how intransigent Turkey can be was in sharp focus today when Finland's foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja, who is also the current President of the EU Council, announced that talks with Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul on the Cyprus issue had ended without any agreement.

Turkey continues its blockade of all ships and planes originating from the southern portion of Cyprus, Greek Cyprus. Since the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union, Turkey’s stance violates the basic EU principle that all member states recognize each other and impose no trade barriers. In a diplomatic note signed in Ankara in July 2005, Turkey recognized the EU customs union as including Cyprus. That agreement was the last obstacle to be removed in paving the way for the start of official negotiations on Turkish EU membership.

The EU must now decide what the consequences will be for Turkey’s refusal to accept Cyprus as part of the customs union. The European Commission will likely present its recommendation next week, prior to the year-end EU summit meeting of EU leaders in mid-December. EU commissioner for enlargement Olli Rehn is expected to give a negative report on Wednesday regarding Turkey’s overall progress in meeting EU expectations for membership. The Cyprus issue is not the only area where serious concerns exist. Other problem areas include freedom of speech, the treatment of the Kurdish minority and the Turkish judicial system, which the EU Commission feels is not sufficiently independent of government influence.

It seems an odd coincidence that today’s failure to reach agreement with Turkey happened the day before Pope Benedict is scheduled to arrive in Turkey for an official visit that will likely spark protests over the pope’s remarks on Islam and violence during a visit to Germany in September. Prior to becoming pope, Benedict was unequivocal in his rejection of EU membership, citing Turkey’s Islamic culture as a main reason why Turkey is not really part of Europe. Many EU citizens would agree with the pope. In the event that negotiations with Turkey are successful and any national referendums are held on whether to admit Turkey – similar to those last year on the proposed EU constitution – chances are high that Turkish membership will be blocked. With the failed EU constitution, the single veto system remains in effect.

Recent surveys show a majority of Germans opposed to Turkish EU membership. With the addition of Bulgaria and Romania as EU members on January 1, 2007, many see EU eastward expansion completed. That sentiment was reflected in today’s headlines in more than German newspaper: "Negotiations with Turkey nearing collapse". In an editorial following today's announcement, the conservative daily "Die Welt" summarized the perception of many Germans: "The EU has been made a fool long enough by Turkey. Appeals, reminders, threats – all these maneuvers from the toolbox of the European school of diplomacy haven't achieved anything at the Bosporus. At most they have prodded the anger of many EU citizens because of a lenient expansion policy that repeatedly opens a back door for [membership] candidates. The EU doesn't need Turkey."