Turkish women in a mosque in Berlin. Berlin  is the largest Turkish city outside of Turkey.

The history of ancient Israel is a reminder of how important demographics can be. After living several generations in the land of Goshen in Egypt, the Israelites had multiplied to the point where they were viewed as a potential internal threat to Egypt’s security. Pharaoh’s concerns are recorded in Exodus 1:8-10: "Now there arose a new king over Egypt, who did not know Joseph. And he said to his people, Look, the people of the children of Israel are more and mightier than we; come, let us deal shrewdly with them, lest they multiply, and it happen, in the event of war, that they also join our enemies and fight against us, and so go up out of the land."

As the following verses show, the perceived threat from the rapid population growth of Jacob’s children was the main reason for their enslavement in Egypt. In ignorance of the dynamics of demographics some have wondered how a group of some 70 Israelites who came to Egypt to live and were blessed by God could have become a nation numbering possibly 2-3 million people within a span of some 240 years. European history shows just how quickly population growth takes place when conditions are favorable.

300 years ago there were an estimated 120 million people living in Europe. The next 200 years witnessed a veritable population explosion in Europe. The industrial revolution with its mechanization of farming and food production and improved hygiene and medical practice contributed to a remarkable reduction in infant and child mortality. By 1914 Europe’s population had increased to 450 million, even though an estimated 60 million Europeans emigrated during that period. From 1780 to 1910 Germany’s population increased by 205 percent, from 21 million to approximately 64 million. Population growth in England and Wales was even faster. The 8 million people living in this region in 1780 had become 40 million by 1910, an increase of 400 percent (source: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung).

However, before the turn of the 20th century, birth rates in Europe had already started to decline.

From slow growth to no growth in Europe

At the end of the 19th century birth rates in Europe had begun to decline, primarily in the upper middle class. The trend continued and accelerated in the 20th century, especially following World War II. Improved educational and career opportunities and the resulting delay in marriage or childbearing, the introduction of welfare and pension systems as an alternative to a large family for some measure of financial security and changing lifestyles with an emphasis on leisure were among the factors contributing to the decline.

Birth rates in Europe have now fallen to an average of 1.45 children per woman of childbearing age, well below the 2.1 average that demographers consider necessary to sustain a country’s population. At this level, the population of the European Union is projected to decline by about 5 percent in the next 40 years, even with an estimated one million legal immigrants per year.

The situation is especially critical in Germany. Statistics released earlier this year show a national birth rate 1.36 live births. Given current trends, demographic researchers in Germany predict that the number of children born in Germany will drop 50 percent by the year 2050. "Germany's negative demographic development has increased," was the assessment of Hans Fleisch, chairman of the private "Institute for Population and Development" in Berlin. According to Fleisch, the last two years have definitely witnessed the start of the country’s population decline. The birth rate of the last three decades – already low – has dropped even further.

The declining birth rate is most acute in the former East Germany, where the average birth rate since the unification of Germany in 1990 is 0.77 live births. Reiner Klingholz, the director of the Berlin institute, summarized the situation with some humor: "With Vatican City as the exception, that’s the lowest birth rate anywhere in the world." With a large portion of a generation "missing" as a result of the birth rate, Germany’s new federal states in the eastern part of the country will begin to see a marked population decline after 2015.

Although not directly related to Europe’s declining birth rate, it is also interesting to note that the number of Europeans who profess to be Christians has declined noticeably in the last 100 years. In 1900 approximately 95 percent of Europeans were members of the Christian faith. At the beginning of the 21st century that percentage had dropped to 75 percent, with a sharp increase in the decline just in the last 25 years.

For example, since 1980 the population segment in Belgium that identifies itself as Christian declined by 20 percent, in the Netherlands by 18 percent and in France by 16 percent. Today’s Europe is also the only continent witnessing a decline in the number of Catholics. The annual number of infant baptisms in the Philippines is now more than the combined annual total for France, Italy, Poland and Spain.

A fast growing Islamic minority

In the boom years following World War II and its aftermath, Western European nations recognized their inability to provide sufficient workers from their domestic labor markets to meet the requirements of an expanding economy. Their solution was to hire "guest workers" (Gastarbeiter in German) from other countries to fill the gap. Some of those "guest workers" were from countries that either were already part of the European Economic Community (like Italy) or have since become members of the European Union (Portugal and Spain, for example). As citizens of an EU member country, they are therefore no longer "guest workers" in one sense, since the European Union guarantees freedom of movement without employment restrictions for its citizens.

However, "guest workers" of the Islamic faith from countries like Turkey, Algeria, Morocco, the former Yugoslavia, etc. were also brought to Western Europe to work. As far as long-term residency is concerned, the term "guest worker" says it all: A guest is supposed to go home when his stay is finished. However, immigration laws and residency requirements were applied equally to all, regardless of the country of origin. The result is – barring any changes in immigration and residency regulations – that millions of "guest workers" now have permanent residency status in their host countries. Many have since been joined by their spouses and children, having utilized Europe’s liberal immigration family reunification rules for immediate family members.

In many cases this Islamic minority is now residing in its third generation in Europe. It doesn’t only reside here, it is also growing – and quickly. In the last 30 years, the size of the Islamic minority in Europe has tripled in size. Some of that growth has come from family reunification immigration, but a considerable portion of the growth is attributable to the high birth rates among Islamic families. Currently their birth rate is about three times higher than that of traditional native Europeans.

In other words, without the population growth provided by the European Islamic community, Europe’s population would be declining even more rapidly. Muslims currently account for about 5 percent of Europe’s population. Based on current trends, that percentage will double within 15 years. At the same time, the traditional non-Muslim population of Europe will decline by an estimated 3.5 percent. Europe’s traditional non-Islamic population is slowly but surely dying out, and Europe’s Islamic community is experiencing a population explosion. If this situation continues unhindered, it is only a matter of time before the Islamic community in Europe becomes a sizeable minority and even a majority of Europe’s total population. In 2005, for example, there were more children of Islamic parentage born in France than people of a traditional French background.

Europe’s future in Bible prophecy

The key to understanding Europe’s future in Bible prophecy in found in the book of Daniel, and the foundational prophecy of Daniel is Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar’s dream about a huge human statue found in chapter two. The statue was divided into four parts – head, chest and arms, mid-section and thighs and lastly its legs and feet. The image represented a chronological succession of world-ruling empires, considering that the Bible’s focal point for prophecy is the Holy Land and Jerusalem.

Daniel identified the Babylonian empire with its king Nebuchadnezzar as the head of the image (Daniel 2:38). The succeeding empires were, in chronological order, the Medo-Persian Empire, the Greek Empire of Alexander the Great and lastly the Roman Empire. In Daniel’s vision recorded in chapter 7, these four empires are later symbolized by "four great beasts" (verse 3).

Nebuchadnezzar’s dream appears to leave some questions open, since the fourth world-ruling empire – the Roman Empire – is obviously described as existing at the time of Christ’s return. Jesus is the stone that strikes the image on its toes (Daniel 2:44-45), causing it to crumble. The stone then fills the entire earth, symbolizing the worldwide dominion of the kingdom of God with Jesus as its ruler.

Daniel identifies the toes of the image as "kings" (Daniel 2:44). Since Nebuchadnezzar’s image progresses in chronological sequence from top to bottom and the stone representing Jesus strikes the image on its feet, the toes – ten of them – would logically represent the final days of the fourth empire, the Roman Empire. However, history students know that the Roman Empire ceased to exist in A.D. 476, and Jesus did not return at that time.

The chronology of the fourth kingdom of Daniel 2 and 7 can be understood by realizing that the Roman Empire was resurrected several times since its demise. Imperial authority in Italy was initially re-established by Justinian, the Emperor at Constantinople, in A.D. 554 upon the behest of the Pope in Rome. This set the pattern for successive resurrections, which history calls the "Holy Roman Empire."

Interestingly, the book of Revelation contains a prophecy about ten kings who collectively form a "beast" that Jesus Christ will conquer and destroy upon His return to the earth. We read about them in Revelation 17:12-14: "The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast ... These will make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb will overcome them" (emphasis ours).

It is apparent that the 10 toes of Nebuchadnezzar’s image correspond to these ten kings of Revelation 17, where they are symbolized not by toes, but by "horns." Those ten horns are part of a beast described in verse 3 as having "seven heads and ten horns", with the ten horns – the final ten kings who will fight against Christ – apparently representing one of the seven heads. Each of the seven heads is a "mountain" – biblical symbolism for a kingdom or empire – with its king (verses 9-10). Verse 10 makes clear that the head appear in chronological sequence, and the final "head" or king (verse 10) will appear as the ten kings symbolized by ten horns (verse 12).

This sequence of rulers is dominated by a religious system called "Babylon the Great" that emanates from "the great harlot [city] who sits on many waters, with whom the kings of the earth committed fornication, and the inhabitants of the earth were made drunk with the wine of her fornication" (Revelation 17:1-2). The true church of God is pictured in the Bible as a chaste bride waiting to be married to Christ. The harlot of Revelation 17 is a deceptive religious system masquerading as a true system of worship.

As the modern heir of ancient Babylon’s mystery religion, the city of Rome is described as "drunk with the blood of the saints and with the blood of the martyrs of Jesus” (Revelation 17:6). It is an historical fact that Rome, more than any under city, under the influence of a great religious system, has orchestrated the persecution and martyrdom of "those who keep the commandments of God and the faith of Jesus" (Revelation 14:12). Even early church writers recognized the connection between Babylon and Rome by interpreting Peter’s use of the word "Babylon" in 1 Peter 5:12 to mean to city of Rome.

Pictured as a harlot sitting astride the beast of which she is the cultural and spiritual center, this infamous city has exerted a vast influence over the earth's "peoples, multitudes, nations and languages" (Revelation 17:15, NIV). For a while she has enjoyed the status and fame of being the city that "reigns over the kings of the earth" (verse 18).

In other words, it appears that the composite beast of Revelation 17 is the so-called "Holy Roman Empire" – the resurrected Roman Empire dominated by the modern descendant of the ancient Babylonian mystery religion. The final resurrection of that empire will also be influenced by the same religious system that has dominated it since A.D. 554.

Implications for Europe’s future

The final resurrection of the Roman Empire, like the original empire and its subsequent "resurrections," will be centered in Europe. It appears that it can be seen today in its embryonic form in the European Union. That does not mean that all current EU nations will be part of the final configuration, but those that choose to participate will combine to form a short-lived, powerful union influenced by a traditional religious system based in Rome, the modern heir of ancient Babylon.

Islam has never been the religion of the "Holy Roman Empire". Since the "great harlot" of Revelation 17 is pictured as continually being the dominant influence on the beast system, the Islamic minority in Europe apparently will not grow to such an extent that it will prevent the traditional religious system of the "Holy Roman Empire" from exerting its influence in the end-time beast power.

With the fast-growing Islamic minority in Europe, what are the implications for Europe’s future vis-à-vis the Islamic community and Islamic immigration? There would appear to be several possibilities, including the following:

• Immigration from non-EU, Islamic countries may be restricted at some point in the future.
• Residency for some – perhaps a majority – of non-EU Islamic people living in Europe may be revoked at some point in the future.
• The final configuration of the last resurrection of the "Holy Roman Empire" will occur sooner than some people may think, while Europeans of a traditional heritage are still the obvious majority in Europe.

In the current liberal atmosphere here in Europe, restricting immigration for people of the Islamic faith – or even deporting some of those who are already here – seems unlikely today. However, the violent reaction in the Netherlands to the murder in broad daylight of Dutch movie producer Theo van Gogh by a Moroccan in November 2004 shows what can happen in a tense confrontation. Restricting immigration of Islamic nationals would certainly strain relations between the European Union and the Islamic world.

One area that remains a big question mark is whether Islamic Turkey will become a full member of the European Union. Official negotiations with Turkey began last fall and are expected to last at least 10 and possibly as long as 20 years. Turkish EU membership would definitely weaken past criticism of the EU for appearing to be a "Christian club" of sorts. Turkey would become the EU’s largest country. Based on current population trends, Turkey will surpass Germany’s 82 million inhabitants by the year 2020 and may have as many as 100 million people by the year 2050.

Prior to becoming Pope Benedict XVI, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger described negotiations with Turkey on EU membership a "huge mistake". The Catholic Church currently has no official position on the subject, and Pope Benedict has said nothing further, either. However, his silence may be interpreted as an indication that his personal viewpoint remains unchanged.

On the other hand, Pope John Paul II made an obvious attempt to improve relations with the Islamic world. As strange as it might sound, could some kind of agreement between a Christian Europe and at least part of the Muslim Middle East be possible – an agreement that would guarantee tolerance of the Muslim minority in Europe while providing Europe access to at least part of the Middle East?

Psalm 83 may indicate some kind of modern-day European-Islamic confederation against Israel. Israel in this context means more than just the tribe of Judah or the political state of Israel. Assyria ethnically appears to refer to inhabitants of Central Europe who migrated there many centuries ago, while all other names mentioned that are associated with a geographic location are within that part of the Middle East that was once dominated by the Turkish Ottoman Empire. Considering that the eastern border of the ancient Roman Empire once extended to the Euphrates River – which begins in Turkey and bisects Syria and Iraq before emptying into the Persian Gulf –, is it conceivable that the final resurrection of the Roman Empire will reach some kind of short-lived agreement with those Islamic countries closest to its southern Mediterranean border?

If so, Turkey might be the bridge between a Christian-dominated Europe and the Middle East with its Islamic population. Like many of its neighbors in the Middle East, Turkey has a huge Islamic majority, but its government is secular. Turkey has cultural and political ties throughout the neighboring regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.

Whatever relationship may exist in the future between Europe and the Middle East, Bible prophecy indicates that the dominant religious influence on the final resurrection of the Roman Empire will not be Islam – despite the current demographic trends in Europe. Instead, it be the same one that has existed for centuries in previous revivals of the "Holy Roman Empire" – that of "Babylon the Great, the mother or harlots and of the abominations of the earth" (Revelation 17:5).

• Paul Kieffer and Ewin Barnett, April 24, 2006