June 10, 2010: While some readers would disagree with the title of this article, yesterday's election results in the Netherlands were definitely a big surprise for political commentators and analysts. Maverick conservative politician Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party gained 15 seats in the Dutch parliament and now hold 24 of the 150 seats decided by Dutch voters. The increase in support for the Freedom Party was not reflected in pre-election polls, a reverse of the so-called Bradley effect when Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California governor's race despite leading in voter polls.

Why did Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party do better in yesterday's election than the polls indicated? One reason might be that voters were reluctant to admit they would support a controversial candidate. Mr. Wilders also moderated his tone in the final weeks of campaigning, lessening the intensity of his anti-Islam remarks. Otherwise Mr. Wilders is not known for pulling punches when it comes to expressing his opinion on Islam. In parliament he once said that the Koran should be banned in the Netherlands and that if Islam's holy book were to be stripped of passages proclaiming violence it would be reduced to the size of a "Donald Duck" comic book. Wilders says he has nothing against the people whose religion is Islam. Instead, his condemnation is directed only at their religion, which he does not consider to be a religion at all.

When Dutch voters rejected the first proposed European Union constitution in June 2005, Wilders called the defeat of the constitution a "festival for the Netherlands" and also a "vote against a Turkey with too much influence" within the EU. Wilders' comments at the time were a reflection of the fears of many Dutch voters. Concerns over the possible admission of Turkey as an EU member increased especially following the murder of movie director Leo van Gogh on an Amsterdam street on November 2, 2004, resulting in an outbreak of anti-Muslim violence in the Netherlands.

Mainstream political parties in the Netherlands were quick to emphasize that they would not accept Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party as partners in a multi-party governing coalition. A four-party coalition is possible, but divergent views among the likely partners could mean that legislation would be delayed for months as party leaders wrangle over compromise positions. However, Geert Wilders sees things differently. "The political establishment can't ignore us any longer," was his comment last night following the announcement of election results.

If his party is excluded from the next government coalition, Geert Wilders will likely benefit by having another four years to criticize his country's government on sensitive immigration issues. Whatever the outcome in the next weeks, it appears to be a win-win situation for conservative politician Geert Wilders.